Decoded Intelligence Signal
System Expectancy
advanced
strategy
Verified: May 27, 2026Lexicon Core Definition
The average amount gained or lost per trade across a large sample, calculated as: (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss). Positive expectancy means the system is mathematically profitable over a sufficient number of trades. Expectancy is the definitive measure of system quality — more informative than win rate alone, which is meaningless without average win/loss magnitude.
Analysis Breakdown
The average amount gained or lost per trade across a large sample, calculated as: (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss). Positive expectancy means the system is mathematically profitable over a sufficient number of trades. Expectancy is the definitive measure of system quality — more informative than win rate alone, which is meaningless without average win/loss magnitude. Full explanation coming soon when Journey 16 content is ingested.